“低生育率+老龄化”双杀下,上海即将放开落户了!

来源:津航咨询

2025-05-07

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上海老龄化情况越来越严重了,根据统计,上海户籍人口中,60岁以上老人占比37.4% 。这是什么概念?每10个上海户籍人口,就有3.74个60岁以上的老人!为了吸引更多年轻人才来到上海,上海或将要放开落户了!

上海如今正面临着日益严峻的老龄化问题。根据上海市民政局官网发布的《2023年上海市老年人口、老龄事业和养老服务工作综合统计信息》,全市户籍人口1519.47万中,60 岁及以上老年人口达568.05万,占比 37.4% 。

而上海之所以看起来没有这么老,全靠外来人口撑着。这一数据直观地反映出,上海老龄化程度已相当之高,养老负担愈发沉重。

01为何老龄化如此严重?

1

生育率跌破警戒线

户籍人口总和生育率0.72,仅为全国平均水平(1.09)的66%,甚至低于东京(0.99)、首尔(0.81);

平均初育年龄31.81岁,超一线城市生育意愿持续低迷;

户籍一孩率77.5%,三孩率仅1.7%,年轻家庭“生不动”更“养不起”。

2

结婚率越发低迷

2024年,全市共办理结婚登记90167对、离婚登记44864对。按2024初公布的上海常住人口数值计算,2024年结婚率为3.62%,比上一年下降了0.57个千分点。

02上海如何向外突围?

1

用“户籍红利”留住存量人口

居转户年限缩短:重点区域工作满3年即可申请,锁定中青年技术骨干;

三胎家庭直接落户:2025新政对生育三孩的非沪籍家庭开放“零门槛”通道;

本地高校应届生倾斜:上海双一流硕士直接落户,防止人才外流长三角。

2

争夺全国高净值人群

年薪200万高管落户绿色通道3个月审批完成,瞄准企业决策层;

科创企业创始人税收换户籍:融资超500万、雇佣10人以上企业主优先;

留学生“归国首站”计划:Top100院校毕业生无社保要求,填补高端岗位缺口。

近年来,上海其实已经在逐步放宽落户政策,今年年底人才引进落户和留学生落户政策就要到期了,有一定概率会放宽,毕竟门槛最低的居转户也有些许放宽。不过变化也不会太大,政策发展了这么多年还是要以稳定为主,如果大家打算走人才引进或者留学生落户的,可以先按照当前的政策累计条件。




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